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Artificial Intelligence



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TOPICS COVERED ON THIS PAGE:

Artificial intelligences
Emotional, conscious computers?
Eugenics
The far future; our part in it
Twilight of humanity?
Anthropocentrism in AI
Technological Singularity?








THE INEVITABILITY OF
TRULY INTELLIGENT MACHINES

'Information and computation reside in patterns of data and in relations of logic that are independent of the physical medium that carries them. When you telephone your mother in another city, the message stays the same as it goes from your lips to her ears even as it physically changes its form, from vibrating air, to electricity in a wire, to charges in silicon, to flickering light in a fiber optic cable, to electromagnetic waves, and then back again in reverse order. In a similar sense, the message stays the same when she repeats it to your father at the other end of the couch after it has changed its form inside her head into a cascade of neurons firing and chemicals diffusing across synapses. Likewise, a given program can run on computers made of vacuum tubes, electromagnetic switches, transistors, integrated circuits, or well-trained pigeons, and it accomplishes the same things for the same reasons'

- Steven Pinker, 'How the Mind Works'



'our inventions are becoming our only evolutionary competitor'

- Howard Rheingold


 

Some people maintain that we should make our bodies less vulnerable to the damage wrought by time. Humans, as we know, are obsessed with themselves (I don't mean that as a criticism); during the near future, we will devote far more money to attempts to prolong and improve human life than we spend directly on AI*. But I think that in the long run, mechanical principles dictate that the greatest intelligences, with the greatest lifespans, will not be humans or cyborgs (humans with lots of machine implants), but pure machines**. Thomas Ray enumerates a couple of strengths of machine intelligence:

"it can perform enormously complex numerical calculations and process huge volumes of numerical data at phenomenal speeds
It could transport itself physically to any point on the planet's surface in milliseconds [and since the information constituting a machine mind could rapidly shift between structures, death might be evitable]
At any instant of time, it might actually be distributed widely around the planet"


I would add a couple more:

The machine can be designed from scratch (by a clever enough entity - perhaps another machine), and with ultimate goals in mind: therefore, intelligence need not get stuck in evolutionary dead ends.
The physical and informational boundaries between organisms could be far more fluid; skills, knowledge and ability could be interchanged with far greater rapidity. One of the sad things about the human race (and all species with culture) is that whenever someone dies, so much of their wealth of information, wisdom, and hard-learned life strategies dies with them.

 

* Although plenty of money will be spent on 'brain extensions' such as word processors.

** Of course, humans are biological machines; but let's not get too semantic - you know what I mean by 'machine'.





The history of AI has been punctuated by dashed expectations; scientist after scientist has realised the enormous difficulty of replicating the flexible intelligence which 6 billion organisms in our Solar System already possess. As Ray Kurzweil notes, "computers are still unable to describe the objects on a [randomly selected] crowded kitchen table, write a summary of a movie, tie a pair of shoelaces, [or] tell the difference between a dog and a cat". The frustrations of AI are something of a tribute to the engineering by evolution of the contents of our skulls. I think that many ‘prophets’ of the Artificial Intelligence movement - for example Hans Moravec - have been guilty of somewhat overvaluing brute computing power. In AI, the real challenge is not to use algorithms to process vast quantities of information; it is to develop elegant algorithms which can process information effectively, often by examining it from different perspectives (perhaps the equivalent of the differences between our senses, and between our modes of thought).

One of the major strengths of the human mind is that it does not examine information in a unidimensional way; for example, when talking to someone we pay attention to their tone of voice, facial expression, what they are wearing, their posture, what they are saying, and so on; if one information-processing technique does not extract valuable information, another is likely to. It is in this flexibility that humans are still (generally speaking) ahead of machines - we all know the annoyance caused us by a machine which can’t connect us to a web address because we’ve failed to type out every last ‘~’ and ‘/’.

Increasingly, the human mind will be (and to some extent already is) responsible for carrying out only those tasks which demand a flexibility of which only it is (at present) capable; tasks which are simpler, more quantitative, or which demand the analysis of huge numbers of variables, will be delegated to mechanisms exterior to the human skull.

The desire to overcome the common obtuseness of computers has created a trend which supplements the delegation of simple tasks (or tasks at which humans are no good, such as multiplying huge numbers or juggling many variables at once) to non-human mechanisms. This is the artificial re-creation of the flexibility which characterises human minds. Even if no humans had in mind the goal of creating a (probably inorganic) AI, selection pressure (exercised by the frustration computer users often feel when interacting with a computer) would push computers towards and beyond human-equivalent (not human-like) intelligence. But many very smart people (among them Rodney Brooks and the other people working on the COG project at MIT) are obsessed with just such a goal; and their numbers will increase.

But are there compelling reasons why 'mere machines' should not become intelligent, conscious, sensitive, emotional - all the qualities which make us human? The basis of my argument is that, as has been well established by the scientific community, there is no reason to think that we ourselves are anything more than 'mere machines', albeit marvellously complex and skilful ones. I will start by examining the role of emotion, leaving the thorny issue of consciousness for later.

 



EMOTION:

Before we ask why robots should have emotions, it is useful to ask why we have emotions. Although it is usually assumed that robots/computers will not have emotions (unless, as with Commander Data in 'Star Trek - The Next Generation' they are 'programmed in'), it increasingly seems that emotion (whether accompanied by consciousness or not) is integral to the prioritisation of goals.

It would seem - although I am open to disagreement - that all animals experience emotion, whether consciously or no. So emotions are either something which all higher (terrestrial) lifeforms have needed to evolve, or an accompaniment to something which they have apparently all evolved (whether or not emotions are essential). This suggests that emotions are extremely useful for any being which needs to perform well in a complex (mental as well as exterior) world. It is therefore unlikely that emotions are 'intrinsically human' or in principle only characteristic of organic lifeforms.

People with 'emotional deficits' have been found to be less able to choose between goals; they get mired at the stage of deciding what to do.

But while this evidence is certainly suggestive, it is no more than circumstantial. Is it possible for drive to exist without emotion?

Emotion is not just about realizing what your goals are; it's also about wanting to act on that knowledge. If you do not have frustration and longing to impel you, then perhaps you will end up doing nothing. Why try and win a mate, gain top marks, make friends or get food if you don't really care? It may be that emotions are so intertwined with drive that an active being couldn't function without feelings being wired in.

[more later - I'm not satisfied with these arguments yet.]


CONSCIOUSNESS:

The fact that we are conscious may be one of the most remarkable of all.

Before I go on, I should probably explain what I mean by consciousness, because surprisingly often, philosophers and others have mistaken other things for consciousness: for example, self-awareness, 'theory of mind' (i.e. the attribution of thoughts and motives to others), and attention. Although these may often be associated with consciousness, you can trust me when I say they are not the same thing. Think about it: you can construct a tiny robot that pays attention to itself, constructs simple hypotheses about others, goes to sleep sometimes and pays attention at others, and has no consciousness whatsoever. It acts, but doesn't experience (that statement is unscientific, because I can't prove that such a robot isn't conscious. But I'm pretty sure I'm right).

So: why has evolution bothered to provide us with awareness? I can think of two possibilities. One is that consciousness has a specific role, being intrinsic to higher mental functions (such as formulating a novel course of action, for example). Another - which I favour, partly just through intuition - is that consciousness is simply an 'emergent property'; one which does not actually have a role, but which tends to arise spontaneously in organisms (whether organic or inorganic) which are appropriately organised and sufficiently complex. (It is unclear which is more important - type of organisation or degree of complexity). I suspect that although we are now roughly able to detect where consciousness is at a given time (for example, by determining the location of the ‘P-300 wave’), the answer to why consciousness arises will not become apparent for a while yet.

The mathematician Roger Penrose (outstanding in his own field) has attempted to show that Artificial Intelligence will always lack a ‘certain something’ - consciousness, free will, or somesuch thing - because of the pivotal role of quantum effects. His efforts have been widely lambasted, so my contribution to the admonitory flood will be brief. Simply this: that quantum effects act on a physical level; the functions of our carbon-based bodies can mostly likely be replicated in other media (given time); and therefore, that any interaction between quantum phenomena and our bodies can probably be replicated in other media - those of Artificial Intelligences.

In any case, I think the 'quantum escape clause' is very much overused in a variety of philosophical fields - in fact I've never seen it used well (not that I know much about quantum physics).

But I haven't shown that all intelligent machines will necessarily be conscious. I don't think that consciousness is necessarily copperfastened to intelligence; I think it could also be linked to the way a brain is constructed. For example, ant nests behave in very intelligent ways, because all the separate ants work together as a unit; but I don't think many people would argue that there's a sort of unifying consciousness hovering between the ants. If a machine doesn't have parts that communicate with each other very quickly and complexly, it might be intelligent, but it might not be conscious. Perhaps consciousness will only emerge from a brain that's internally joined up; perhaps there are other ways that consciousness is dependent on structure.


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BLIND AND SIGHTED WATCHMAKERS

'The blind watchmaker' - the title of a book by Richard Dawkins - is evolution. The 'sighted watch-maker' is ourselves.

The above arguments demonstrate (to my satisfaction, at least) that AI is in the early stages of a dramatic life-creating project. So: should we allow it to continue? What are the objections?

One argument is that it is wrong to 'play God'. But evolution, a blind and amoral process, has been 'playing God' on this planet for approximately four billion years. The result: the natural world, which has - at least, perhaps, until recently - been more characterised (among the sentient animals) by pain and struggle than by happiness. It has also, of course, resulted in the fascinating species known rather narcissistically as Homo Sapiens Sapiens ("Wise Wise Man").

Life in the wild, as any naturalist will tell you, is often appallingly cruel; our own lives are not endless merry-go-rounds of delight. However, I doubt whether many of us - bar a utilitarian or two - would argue that it would have been better for life never to arise. If blind processes can have results which we value so much, why should we forbid the creation of an entity whose faculties (creative, emotional, intellectual) could be so much deeper and more advanced than ours? Or to forbid artificial implants into the brain? As noted earlier, every schoolmaster is engaged in changing brain structure. To play the conservative God in this instance would be equivalent to going back 65 million years and deflecting the life-changing asteroid which killed some of the most intelligent (most sentient?) beings then in existence - the dromaeosaurid dinosaurs (raptors). Why do that? In order to prevent the global dominion (among large creatures) of more mentally agile creatures: mammals, the group from which Man [sic], the 'paragon of animals', has sprung. Many of the arguments being bandied about ('we must not play God', 'we must not endanger humanity by allowing robots to develop intelligence') are reactionary and destructive.

We cannot shackle development based on the objections given above; we must manage it and make sure that it does not worsen the lives of any conscious beings. There is nothing so wonderful about preserving our human form with its limitations - most if not all of our inventions have in effect been attempts to supersede these limitations. Surely it would be a terrible waste of the potential for enhanced mental experience if we were to prohibit the invasion of our skulls by 'exterior prosthetics'. Objections to changes to the human body and mind can only, I think, be valid when they deal with the psychological and social effects of cosmetic alterations.

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SHOULD WE STAY HUMAN?

Eugenics, Designer Babies, and Jerking Knees

Eugenics was the twisted child of Darwinism; it was one of the theories underpinning the barbarities of the Holocaust. Its proponents thought that natural selection (the process which has created all lifeforms on Earth) was being interfered with by the forgivingness of liberalism and the modern welfare state, and that in order for humanity to become truly healthy, the dregs of society would have to be siphoned off. Eugenicists' approach was two-pronged: people of 'good stock' were to be encouraged to breed, and 'degenerates' were to be kept childless. Active policies of discrimination were integral to eugenics: people of degenerate stock (the unemployed, blacks, slum-dwellers, gays, Irish [hurrah!], gypsies, etc. - basically any group that the eugenicist was already prejudiced against) were to be sterilized or even killed. Eugenics was not confined to Hitler's Germany. Here are just a few of the other perpetrators: Sweden, China, Singapore, and the United States. It was a black chapter in the history of ideologies.

There is a superficial similarity between eugenics and some of the genetic modifications which are being mooted at present; but I think that many debates on humanity's future have been distorted by this. If you listen to a discussion of the role of genetic engineering in humanity's future, you will probably hear the talking heads bandy about terms like 'designer babies' and 'eugenics'. (A designer baby is one whose parents have chosen to engineer what it will be like: for example, they might decide that it will be blue-eyed and good at sports, or black, tall, and very intelligent.) I think it fair to say that most people are extremely wary about making any 'improvements' to the human race. After all, wouldn't such alterations return us back to the bad old days of Hitler and of the depraved Nazi doctor, Joseph Mengele?

Well, what is the difference between the medical procedures that everyone (bar a few Jehovah's Witnesses and perhaps a smattering of others) accepts today, and these ideas of designer babies and eugenics?

At present, we accept that medicine can be used to tackle 'deficiencies' (illness, disability) which prevent people from living normal lives. But with eugenics and designer babies, the 'betterment' of the human race is also sought.
With eugenics, people who aren't considered to 'measure up' cannot be allowed to reproduce. In the worst incarnations of eugenics, these degenerates are earmarked for murder. Note, however, that we can have designer babies without thinking that non-designer babies should be discriminated against.

It is obvious that eugenics is a repulsive doctrine. Yet I would question whether designer babies should be placed in the same category. Here, the aim is to make some mental or physical improvement; it need not involve discrimination.

I think a comparison with education is instructive. Imagine two parents. One decides to have a designer baby with a superb brain; another decides to have a normal child, and give it a superb education. A third child will have neither incredible brains nor a great education. In both the first two cases, the child's mental ability will be enhanced. The designer baby will have greater skills no matter what the training; education, by providing the other child with greater language skills and theoretical tools, will increase its practical mental ability. The third child will lag behind both. The downside of education (and technology) is closely analogous to that of genetic modification: it creates class differences between those who have access to the techniques, and those who do not. Children who leave school at fifteen are generally less likely to end up with top jobs; similarly, we can expect that if we engineer super-smart kids, they will generally take the cream of the jobs on offer.

Q: But isn't designing babies somehow worse than education? Deliberate genetic manipulation is more invasive, less natural.

A: Well, if we used naturalness as our guide to living, we would have to abandon almost everything that distinguishes Western life.

Q: What about the invasiveness?

A: Although teachers don't physically insert knowledge in their pupils' brains, they're undoubtedly engaged in changing the structure of their pupils' brains 'for the better' (think of the reaction that phrase would arouse in the context of designer babies). The effects of education are usually as permanent as those which would be brought about by manipulating the genes of an unborn child.

I am not attempting to argue that the effects of education are necessarily as wide-ranging as those which genetic manipulation (GM) might have. For example, whereas education creates differences in actual learning, GM (and given time, AI), by altering the capacity to learn, can create far more dramatic differences between haves and have nots. However, this is a difference of degree rather than of kind; it appears to me that one should either be against all such changes, or against none. If we are willing to accept one form of brain alteration, why shouldn't we accept the other? The central issue is not whether we should allow people to improve themselves mentally and physically, but that the people who remain unchanged - whether by education or GM - should not be discriminated against.


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THE FAR FUTURE

Whilst a certain amount of information can be readily transferred from an entity before its death, the vastly complex interactions which constitute that entity are harder to replicate - or to keep replacing while it is alive. Although replication is not survival for a Self - if you copy a cassette you end up with two, not one*, I refer to it because of the curious difficulty in locating the dividing line between replication (without proper integration into the organism being copied) and sustenance. I inhabit (indeed am) my body; but a number of years ago, I inhabited a body whose constituents are now far away from me. So:

 How quickly is it possible to change all the parts which create a Self without removing the original Self?  In theory, extremely.
 In what way must such a change be made?  Presently unknown.
 How quickly can the nature of the Self be changed without removing the self altogether and creating a new one?  In theory, extremely.

* something that has puzzled many viewers of Star Trek - do they kill off the Captain Kirk who's left behind in the transporter room? I think many people would agree that the optimal strategy would be to kill both versions, using prolonged and sadistic methods.


WILL MACHINES END UP SPOONFEEDING US IN EVERY WAY?

As I argue above, even the most interesting and productive tasks (apart perhaps from things like sex and eating) will eventually be performed best by machines. So what will humans be doing if the most important decisions and discoveries are being made by machines? The meshing of humans and machines will increasingly have consequences which many see as undesirable. Horrendous though some might think it, it might eventually be possible for all humans to live their whole lives without moving (if you've seen the highly entertaining film 'The Matrix', you get the idea)*. What's more, it is conceivable that these lives could be utterly satisfying, and completely unproductive. If humans as we know them still exist, the needs for social and sexual interaction and for physical exercise could perhaps be entirely sated without budging an inch. Already, many people are becoming absorbed in a 'computer world' as an alternative to engaging with other members of their own species.

* It is worth bearing in mind, though, that this is merely an extrapolation of current trends. Trends often peter out; things move off in a completely different direction. For example, the emergence and importance of airplanes and computers were both (to my knowledge) largely unforeseen, except by a few lone thinkers. In the case I'm discussing, mobile computing (mobile phones, WAP and the like) could ensure that our species doesn't collapse into an abyss of sloth.

I will now ask a question which, I am sure, will seem outrageous to some people. Why should we value 'real' relationships - relationships with other humans - over relationships with other (non-human) machines? In the short term, the answer is clear - machines do not cater to all the needs of humans. They cannot love us, we cannot raise them as children; because they are (note tense) not conscious, a relationship is meaningless. This says less about what is (in an absolute sense) right and wrong than about the makeup of humans; we need specific types of relationship with other feeling entities. Thus far, only humans have been capable of providing such relationships; but this situation is changing. The role of machines is increasing in areas such as the following: sexual imagery and toys; lifelike animations of people; music and art; and, slowly, conversation. What is required for human happiness is certain types of sensory and physical stimuli. Can all of these stimuli be provided by machines? And will they? I think that eventually, all of them can. But what I am not sure about is whether people will accept relationships which are only apparently complete - perhaps more 'complete' than most of today's relationships, which, as you know, involve compromise between people with divergent emotional and intellectual needs.

Say machines provide you with a virtual reality in which you can choose as many or as few (constantly willing) sexual partners as you wish. Each of these virtual people (or whatever sort of entity you choose to interact with) can engage you in constantly stimulating conversation. They will shutup if you want them to, or if you prefer feisty companions, that can also be arranged. If you wish, you can lead armies to glorious victories against the forces of darkness every day, or spend your time knitting stupendous virtual sweaters. If you can't think of an intellectual or emotional challenge to keep you occupied, the machine can do so. If your chemistry predisposes you to periodic dissatisfaction, that can be changed if you like, or if the machine deems it suitable. Suppose that you can do all this, and that you know it to be partly illusory. The intellectual interaction could be with a conscious machine, but it might essentially be patronising you - keeping your inferior mind occupied and entertained. All the best thinking, even the most intense feelings and artistic experiences, would be the preserve of machines. How far would you reject such a lifestyle, and spend your 'quality time' with humans (often tiresome beings, but beings like yourself)? I suspect that many people would spend less time with their own kind than they might think; but perhaps there will be a persistent tendency to avoid a life in which we are only spoonfed by our vastly smarter mentors and the diversions which they (and perhaps some humans) construct for us.



IS DOOM NIGH?

"The human race, as we know it, is very likely in its end game; our period of dominance on Earth is about to be terminated. We can try and reason and bargain with the machines which take over, but why should they listen when they are far more intelligent than we are? All we should expect is that we humans are treated by the machines in the same way that we now treat other animals, as slave workers, energy producers or curiosities in zoos. We must obey their wishes and live only to serve all our lives, what there is of them, under the control of machines."

- Kevin Warwick, "In the Mind of the Machine"

Although I agree with Warwick that machines will eventually become vastly smarter than us, I think the above quote is rather flawed. Certainly, the human race will no longer persist as we know it; it will probably no longer be the dominant force. But to assume that they will subjugate us is to take guesswork a step too far. How can we know that a far more intelligent creature than humans will not take our welfare into account? Or that morality will not be either built into their brains, or simply an intrinsic part of high intelligence? Even humans, who are neither particularly intelligent nor outstandingly moral, often treat other species with a lot of respect; and these positive behaviours are on the increase. (Unfortunately, however, our destructive power is also on the increase; so the more technologically advanced we become, the more moral we need to be).

I have tried to work out how machines will treat us in the future. One observation I would make is that Warwick's 'slave worker' scenario is probably far-fetched. Creatures of such physical and manual ability should probably not need humans to carry out tasks for them. But in general, I found - and was correctly informed, mainly by Kenny Lynch - that my investigation was too much to take on. For now, I think we just can't know; even though I'm intuitively optimistic about it, there are too many ifs and maybes to make a convincing case. I feel pretty sure that their intelligence will vastly outstrip ours; but as for how they will act when they become the most powerful creatures in the world, I think it's just a matter of wait and see.

 

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CONSCIOUS BEINGS IN INORGANIC MEDIA:
Anthropomorphism, Anthropocentrism and the Constriction of Ethics




"These [software entities] are not models of life, but independent instances of life . . . Because everything we know about life is based on a single example, our every conception of life is highly parochial. For most people, it is impossible to separate our concept of life from the material in which our one example is embedded. Organic, wet, material, etc., are integral parts of our conception of what life is"

- Thomas Ray


It is not only with regard to other animals that humans are biased; although advocates of eugenics are often seen as (and quite often are) racist weirdos with aspirations to Godlike status, scarcely a whimper is aroused by the efforts of the AI community to realize its primary goal: computer programs which aren't mere idiot savants, but can reason intelligently about a wide range of things, be wise, and all the rest of those things which humans are so far best at (on Earth, at least).

If the AI people do achieve this - and I think it will eventually happen - I would guess that the resulting intelligences stand a good chance of being conscious* - probably far more so than ourselves. If you think about your own consciousness, it is (like mine) fairly limited most of the time; the novelist Milan Kundera was right when he spoke about the 'lightness of being' (although I'm not sure whether he should have called it unbearable). Something that strikes me as I go about my life is how unthinking and automatized I am a lot of the time. Obviously, this kind of living - where you're not all that conscious of anything much - is the result of instincts, and of well-memorized behaviour sequences such as the one for tying shoelaces. During emotional or exciting experiences, my consciousness is at its most activated; but most of the time, my experience of the world is a fairly low-level thing. I can easily imagine an AI having a far more intense, awake life than humans have.

* This is not a scientific statement, because we don't know how consciousness arises. If it's mainly due to how the brains of 'higher' animals are organised, then perhaps it will not arise in machines/computers. But I suspect - without much evidence - that complexity is also very important, and that many different types of structure could give rise to consciousness.


Ray writes that

"The umbrella of Artificial Life is broad, and covers three principal approaches: . . . . in hardware (e.g., robotics, nanotechnology), in software (e.g., replicating and evolving computer programs), in wetware (e.g., replicating and evolving organic molecules, nucleic acids or others)."1

1 From 'An evolutionary approach to synthetic biology', Artificial Life 1, 1994.

This reminds me of some mistakes people commonly make when thinking (or intuiting) about life:

When they see two equally complex lifeforms, one of 'wetware' and the other of hardware or software, they are more likely to consider the wetware as life. The bias is especially strong with regard to software, because it is even more different than robots are from the lifeforms that we are accustomed to. Robots can look and move a little like animals; but computer programs flit around like the brainwaves we never see. But it is the software - in brains, in robots, and in computer programs - which is the real seat of intelligence.

Imagine a computer program which is as intelligent as a human, in the same ways (an unlikely prospect, but bear with me for argument's sake). These computer programs are being made to serve humans. Now imagine a brainless foetus which is being grown so that its organs can be harvested by doctors and implanted into sick people. My guess is that many people would be more put off by the latter scenario, in spite of the fact that it is the foetus which is mindless and therefore undeserving of ethical consideration.

Often, our ethical behaviour is determined by how similar an entity is to ourselves. This is already a problem with regard to how we treat different animals: for example, I would guess that most people would be more distressed by witnessing a cat being tortured - and yowling with pain etc. - than by witnessing the same treatment meted out to an octopus, which - so I have heard - is about as intelligent. At present, new lifeforms are arising, whose physical and behavioural characteristics will generally be even more dissimilar from those of humans.

As the programs we create grow more intelligent, they will increasingly fall within the ambit of ethics; we must be careful to avoid mistreating those which possess emotions and consciousness (of course, it isn't possible to mistreat those which don't), and to watch out for the bias against dissimilar lifeforms. However, this may be a relatively short-term problem, as the management of life could slip out of human hands, and be (wholly or partially) taken over by more intelligent machines. Nevertheless, it would be a good idea to keep a close eye on our creations, and to think about ways of determining whether they might be conscious. The Turing test?

[more later]

Thanks to Kenny Lynch and J. Arlen Pruitt for their help and advice on this page.



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The following is the text of a rather interesting essay by Vernor Vinge. I would have edited it if I could, but Mr Vinge forbids that. So you can blame him for any dross.


TECHNOLOGICAL SINGULARITY

(c) 1993 by

Vernor Vinge

(This article may be reproduced for noncommercial purposes if it is copied in its entirety, including this notice.)

A slightly different version of this article was presented at the VISION-21 Symposium sponsored by NASA Lewis Research Center and the Ohio Aerospace Institute, March 30-31, 1993.

--Vernor Vinge


1. What Is The Singularity?

The acceleration of technological progress has been the central feature of this century. We are on the edge of change comparable to the rise of human life on Earth. The precise cause of this change is the imminent creation by technology of entities with greater-than-human intelligence. Science may achieve this breakthrough by several means (and this is another reason for having confidence that the event will occur):

Computers that are "awake" and superhumanly intelligent may be developed. (To date, there has been much controversy as to whether we can create human equivalence in a machine. But if the answer is "yes," then there is little doubt that more intelligent beings can be constructed shortly thereafter.)

Large computer networks and their associated users may "wake up" as superhumanly intelligent entities.

Computer/human interfaces may become so intimate that users may reasonably be considered superhumanly intelligent.

Biological science may provide means to improve natural human intellect.

The first three possibilities depend on improvements in computer hardware. Progress in hardware has followed an amazingly steady curve in the last few decades. Based on this trend, I believe that the creation of greater-than-human intelligence will occur during the next thirty years. (Charles Platt has pointed out that AI enthusiasts have been making claims like this for thirty years. Just so I'm not guilty of a relative-time ambiguity, let me be more specific: I'll be surprised if this event occurs before 2005 or after 2030.)

[Webmaster's note: I think Vinge is making the common mistake of equating powerful hardware with intelligence. It is a prerequisite, but not sufficient; skilful computational techniques must be added to brute force. We should not underestimate the difficulty of doing this; in fact, no-one knows exactly how difficult it will be to create a superior, well-rounded intelligence. On the other hand, we humans are pretty ingenious. So when will it happen? I don't know.]

What are the consequences of this event? When greater-than-human intelligence drives progress, that progress will be much more rapid. In fact, there seems no reason why progress itself would not involve the creation of still more intelligent entities -- on a still-shorter time scale. The best analogy I see is to the evolutionary past: Animals can adapt to problems and make inventions, but often no faster than natural selection can do its work -- the world acts as its own simulator in the case of natural selection. We humans have the ability to internalize the world and conduct what-if's in our heads; we can solve many problems thousands of times faster than natural selection could. Now, by creating the means to execute those simulations at much higher speeds, we are entering a regime as radically different from our human past as we humans are from the lower animals.

This change will be a throwing-away of all the human rules, perhaps in the blink of an eye -- an exponential runaway beyond any hope of control. Developments that were thought might only happen in "a million years" (if ever) will likely happen in the next century.

It's fair to call this event a singularity ("the Singularity" for the purposes of this piece). It is a point where our old models must be discarded and a new reality rules, a point that will loom vaster and vaster over human affairs until the notion becomes a commonplace. Yet when it finally happens, it may still be a great surprise and a greater unknown. In the 1950s very few saw it: Stan Ulam 1 paraphrased John von Neumann as saying:

One conversation centered on the ever-accelerating progress of technology and changes in the mode of human life, which gives the appearance of approaching some essential singularity in the history of the race beyond which human affairs, as we know them, could not continue.

Von Neumann even uses the term singularity, though it appears he is thinking of normal progress, not the creation of superhuman intellect. (For me, the superhumanity is the essence of the Singularity. Without that we would get a glut of technical riches, never properly absorbed.)



The 1960s saw recognition of some of the implications of superhuman intelligence. I. J. Good wrote:

Let an ultraintelligent machine be defined as a machine that can far surpass all the intellectual activities of any man however clever. Since the design of machines is one of these intellectual activities, an ultraintelligent machine could design even better machines; there would then unquestionably be an "intelligence explosion," and the intelligence of man would be left far behind. Thus the first ultraintelligent machine is the last invention that man need ever make, provided that the machine is docile enough to tell us how to keep it under control. . . . It is more probable than not that, within the twentieth century, an ultraintelligent machine will be built and that it will be the last invention that man need make.

Good has captured the essence of the runaway, but he does not pursue its most disturbing consequences. Any intelligent machine of the sort he describes would not be humankind's "tool" -- any more than humans are the tools of rabbits, robins, or chimpanzees.

Through the sixties and seventies and eighties, recognition of the cataclysm spread. Perhaps it was the science-fiction writers who felt the first concrete impact. After all, the "hard" science-fiction writers are the ones who try to write specific stories about all that technology may do for us. More and more, these writers felt an opaque wall across the future. Once, they could put such fantasies millions of years in the future. Now they saw that their most diligent extrapolations resulted in the unknowable . . . soon. Once, galactic empires might have seemed a Posthuman domain. Now, sadly, even interplanetary ones are.

What about the coming decades, as we slide toward the edge? How will the approach of the Singularity spread across the human world view? For a while yet, the general critics of machine sapience will have good press. After all, until we have hardware as powerful as a human brain it is probably foolish to think we'll be able to create human-equivalent (or greater) intelligence. (There is the farfetched possibility that we could make a human equivalent out of less powerful hardware -- if we were willing to give up speed, if we were willing to settle for an artificial being that was literally slow. But it's much more likely that devising the software will be a tricky process, involving lots of false starts and experimentation. If so, then the arrival of self-aware machines will not happen until after the development of hardware that is substantially more powerful than humans' natural equipment.)

But as time passes, we should see more symptoms. The dilemma felt by science-fiction writers will be perceived in other creative endeavors. (I have heard thoughtful comicbook writers worry about how to create spectacular effects when everything visible can be produced by the technologically commonplace.) We will see automation replacing higher- and higher-level jobs. We have tools right now (symbolic math programs, cad/cam) that release us from most low-level drudgery. Put another way: the work that is truly productive is the domain of a steadily smaller and more elite fraction of humanity. In the coming of the Singularity, we will see the predictions of true technological unemployment finally come true.

Another symptom of progress toward the Singularity: ideas themselves should spread ever faster, and even the most radical will quickly become commonplace.

And what of the arrival of the Singularity itself? What can be said of its actual appearance? Since it involves an intellectual runaway, it will probably occur faster than any technical revolution seen so far. The precipitating event will likely be unexpected -- perhaps even by the researchers involved ("But all our previous models were catatonic! We were just tweaking some parameters . . ."). If networking is widespread enough (into ubiquitous embedded systems), it may seem as if our artifacts as a whole had suddenly awakened.

And what happens a month or two (or a day or two) after that? I have only analogies to point to: The rise of humankind. We will be in the Posthuman era. And for all my technological optimism, I think I'd be more comfortable if I were regarding these transcendental events from one thousand years' remove . . . instead of twenty.


2. Can the Singularity Be Avoided?

Well, maybe it won't happen at all: sometimes I try to imagine the symptoms we should expect to see if the Singularity is not to develop. There are the widely respected arguments of Penrose 3 and Searle 4 [The fact that they are widely respected is of little import; religion is widely respected.] against the practicality of machine sapience. In August 1992, Thinking Machines Corporation held a workshop to investigate "How We Will Build a Machine That Thinks." As you might guess from the workshop's title, the participants were not especially supportive of the arguments against machine intelligence. In fact, there was general agreement that minds can exist on nonbiological substrates and that algorithms are of central importance to the existence of minds. However, there was much debate about the raw hardware power present in organic brains. A minority felt that the largest 1992 computers were within three orders of magnitude of the power of the human brain. The majority of the participants agreed with Hans Moravec's estimate 5 that we are ten to forty years away from hardware parity. And yet there was an other minority who conjectured that the computational competence of single neurons may be far higher than generally believed. If so, our present computer hardware might be as much as ten orders of magnitude short of the equipment we carry around in our heads. If this is true (or for that matter, if the Penrose or Searle critique is valid), we might never see a Singularity. Instead, in the early '00s we would find our hardware performance curves beginning to level off -- because of our inability to automate the design work needed to support further hardware improvements. We'd end up with some very powerful hardware, but without the ability to push it further. Commercial digital signal processing might be awesome, giving an analog appearance even to digital operations, but nothing would ever "wake up" and there would never be the intellectual runaway that is the essence of the Singularity. It would likely be seen as a golden age . . . and it would also be an end of progress. This is very like the future predic ted by Gunther Stent, 6 who explicitly cites the development of transhuman intelligence as a sufficient condition to break his projections.

But if the technological Singularity can happen, it will. Even if all the governments of the world were to understand the "threat" and be in deadly fear of it, progress toward the goal would continue. The competitive advantage -- economic, military, even artistic -- of every advance in automation is so compelling that forbidding such things merely assures that someone else will get them first.

Eric Drexler has provided spectacular insights about how far technical improvement may go. 7 He agrees that superhuman intelligences will be available in the near future. But Drexler argues that we can confine such transhuman devices so that their results can be examined and used safely.

I argue that confinement is intrinsically impractical. Imagine yourself locked in your home with only limited data access to the outside, to your masters. If those masters thought at a rate -- say -- one million times slower than you, there is little doubt that over a period of years (your time) you could come up with a way to escape. I call this "fast thinking" form of superintelligence "weak superhumanity." Such a "weakly superhuman" entity would probably burn out in a few weeks of outside time. "Strong superhumanity" would be more than cranking up the clock speed on a human-equivalent mind. It's hard to say precisely what "strong superhumanity" would be like, but the difference appears to be profound. Imagine running a dog mind at very high speed. Would a thousand years of doggy living add up to any human insight? Many speculations about superintelligence seem to be based on the weakly superhuman model. I believe that our best guesses about the post-Singularity world can be obtained by thinking on the nature of strong superhumanity. I will return to this point.

Another approach to confinement is to build rules into the mind of the created superhuman entity. I think that any rules strict enough to be effective would also produce a device whose ability was clearly inferior to the unfettered versions (so human competition would favor the development of the more dangerous models).

If the Singularity can not be prevented or confined, just how bad could the Posthuman era be? Well . . . pretty bad. The physical extinction of the human race is one possibility. (Or, as Eric Drexler put it of nanotechnology: given all that such technology can do, perhaps governments would simply decide that they no longer need citizens.) Yet physical extinction may not be the scariest possibility. Think of the different ways we relate to animals. A Posthuman world would still have plenty of niches where human-equivalent automation would be desirable: embedded systems in autonomous devices, self-aware daemons in the lower functioning of larger sentients. (A strongly superhuman intelligence would likely be a Society of Mind 8 with some very competent components.) Some of these human equivalents might be used for nothing more than digital signal processing. Others might be very humanlike, yet with a onesidedness, a dedication that would put them in a mental hospital in our era. Though none of these creatures might be flesh-and-blood humans, they might be the closest things in the new environment to what we call human now*.

I have argued above that we cannot prevent the Singularity, that its coming is an inevitable consequence of humans' natural competitiveness and the possibilities inherent in technology. And yet: we are the initiators. Even the largest avalanche is triggered by small things. We have the freedom to establish initial conditions, to make things happen in ways that are less inimical than others. Of course (as with starting avalanches), it may not be clear what the right guiding nudge really is:


3. Other Paths to the Singularity

When people speak of creating superhumanly intelligent beings, they are usually imagining an AI project. But as I noted at the beginning of this article, there are other paths to superhumanity. Computer networks and human-computer interfaces seem more mundane than AI, yet they could lead to the Singularity. I call this contrasting approach Intelligence Amplification (IA). IA is proceeding very naturally, in most cases not even recognized for what it is by its developers. But every time our ability to access information and to communicate it to others is improved, in some sense we have achieved an increase over natural intelligence. Even now, the team of a Ph.D. human and good computer workstation (even an off-net workstation) could probably max any written intelligence test in existence.

And it's very likely that IA is a much easier road to the achievement of superhumanity than pure AI. In humans, the hardest development problems have already been solved. Building up from within ourselves ought to be easier than figuring out what we really are and then building machines that are all of that. And there is at least conjectural precedent for this approach. Cairns-Smith 9 has speculated that biological life may have begun as an adjunct to still more primitive life based on crystalline growth. Lynn Margulis (in 10 and elsewhere) has made strong arguments that mutualism is a great driving force in evolution.

Note that I am not proposing that AI research be ignored. AI advances will often have applications in IA, and vice versa. I am suggesting that we recognize that in network and interface research there is something as profound (and potentially wild) as artificial intelligence. With that insight, we may see projects that are not as directly applicable as conventional interface and network design work, but which serve to advance us toward the Singularity along the IA path.

Here are some possible projects that take on special significance, given the IA point of view:

Human/computer team automation: Take problems that are normally considered for purely machine solution (like hillclimbing problems), and design programs and interfaces that take advantage of humans' intuition and available computer hardware. Considering the bizarreness of higher-dimensional hillclimbing problems (and the neat algorithms that have been devised for their solution), some very interesting displays and control tools could be provided to the human team member.

Human/computer symbiosis in art: Combine the graphic generation capability of modern machines and the esthetic sensibility of humans. Of course, an enormous amount of research has gone into designing computer aids for artists. I'm suggesting that we explicitly aim for a greater merging of competence, that we explicitly recognize the cooperative approach that is possible. Karl Sims has done wonderful work in this direction.11

Human/computer teams at chess tournaments: We already have programs that can play better than almost all humans. But how much work has been done on how this power could be used by a human, to get something even better? If such teams were allowed in at least some chess tournaments, it could have the positive effect on IA research that allowing computers in tournaments had for the corresponding niche in AI.

Interfaces that allow computer and network access without requiring the human to be tied to one spot, sitting in front of a computer. (This aspect of IA fits so well with known economic advantages that lots of effort is already being spent on it.)

More symmetrical decision support systems. A popular research/product area in recent years has been decision support systems. This is a form of IA, but may be too focused on systems that are oracular. As much as the program giving the user information, there must be the idea of the user giving the program guidance.

Local area nets to make human teams more effective than their component members. This is generally the area of "groupware"; the change in viewpoint here would be to regard the group activity as a combination organism.

In one sense, this suggestion's goal might be to invent a "Rules of Order" for such combination operations. For instance, group focus might be more easily maintained than in classical meetings. Individual members' expertise could be isolated from ego issues so that the contribution of different members is focused on the team project. And of course shared databases could be used much more conveniently than in conventional committee operations.

The Internet as a combination human/machine tool. Of all the items on the list, progress in this is proceeding the fastest. The power and influence of the Internet are vastly underestimated. The very anarchy of the worldwide net's development is evidence of its potential. As connectivity, bandwidth, archive size, and computer speed all increase, we are seeing something like Lynn Margulis' vision of the biosphere as data processor recapitulated, but at a million times greater speed and with millions of humanly intelligent agents (ourselves).

The above examples illustrate research that can be done within the context of contemporary computer science departments. There are other paradigms. For example, much of the work in artificial intelligence and neural nets would benefit from a closer connection with biological life. Instead of simply trying to model and understand biological life with computers, research could be directed toward the creation of composite systems that rely on biological life for guidance, or for the features we don't understand well enough yet to implement in hardware. A longtime dream of science fiction has been direct brain-to-computer interfaces. In fact, concrete work is being done in this area:

Limb prosthetics is a topic of direct commercial applicability. Nerve-to-silicon transducers can be made. This is an exciting near-term step toward direct communication.

Direct links into brains seem feasible, if the bit rate is low: given human learning flexibility, the actual brain neuron targets might not have to be precisely selected. Even 100 bits per second would be of great use to stroke victims who would otherwise be confined to menu-driven interfaces.

Plugging into the optic trunk has the potential for bandwidths of 1 Mbit/second or so. But for this, we need to know the fine-scale architecture of vision, and we need to place an enormous web of electrodes with exquisite precision. If we want our high-bandwidth connection to add to the paths already present in the brain, the problem becomes vastly more intractable. Just sticking a grid of high-bandwidth receivers into a brain certainly won't do it. But suppose that the high-bandwidth grid were present as the brain structure was setting up, as the embryo developed. That suggests:

Animal embryo experiments. I wouldn't expect any IA success in the first years of such research, but giving developing brains access to complex simulated neural structures might, in the long run, produce animals with additional sense paths and interesting intellectual abilities.

I had hoped that this discussion of IA would yield some clearly safer approaches to the Singularity (after all, IA allows our participation in a kind of transcendence). Alas, about all I am sure of is that these proposals should be considered, that they may give us more options. But as for safety -- some of the suggestions are a little scary on their face. IA for individual humans creates a rather sinister elite. We humans have millions of years of evolutionary baggage that makes us regard competition in a deadly light. Much of that deadliness may not be necessary in today's world, one where losers take on the winners' tricks and are coopted into the winners' enterprises. A creature that was built de novo might possibly be a much more benign entity than one based on fang and talon.

The problem is not simply that the Singularity represents the passing of humankind from center stage, but that it contradicts our most deeply held notions of being. I think a closer look at the notion of strong superhumanity can show why that is.


4. Strong Superhumanity and the Best We Can Ask For

Suppose we could tailor the Singularity. Suppose we could attain our most extravagant hopes. What then would we ask for? That humans themselves would become their own successors, that whatever injustice occurred would be tempered by our knowledge of our roots. For those who remained unaltered, the goal would be benign treatment (perhaps even giving the stay-behinds the appearance of being masters of godlike slaves). It could be a golden age that also involved progress (leaping Stent's barrier). Immortality (or at least a lifetime as long as we can make the universe survive) would be achievable.

But in this brightest and kindest world, the philosophical problems themselves become intimidating. A mind that stays at the same capacity cannot live forever; after a few thousand years it would look more like a repeating tape loop than a person. To live indefinitely long, the mind itself must grow . . . and when it becomes great enough, and looks back . . . what fellow-feeling can it have with the soul that it was originally? The later being would be everything the original was, but vastly more. And so even for the individual, the Cairns-Smith or Lynn Margulis notion of new life growing incrementally out of the old must still be valid.

This "problem" about immortality comes up in much more direct ways. The notion of ego and self-awareness has been the bedrock of the hardheaded rationalism of the last few centuries. Yet now the notion of self-awareness is under attack from the artificial intelligence people. Intelligence Amplification undercuts our concept of ego from another direction. The post-Singularity world will involve extremely high-bandwidth networking. A central feature of strongly superhuman entities will likely be their ability to communicate at variable bandwidths, including ones far higher than speech or written messages. What happens when pieces of ego can be copied and merged, when self-awareness can grow or shrink to fit the nature of the problems under consideration? These are essential features of strong superhumanity and the Singularity. Thinking about them, one begins to feel how essentially strange and different the Posthuman era will be -- no matter how cleverly and benignly it is brought to be.

From one angle, the vision fits many of our happiest dreams: a time unending, where we can truly know one another and understand the deepest mysteries. From another angle, it's a lot like the worst-case scenario I imagined earlier.

In fact, I think the new era is simply too different to fit into the classical frame of good and evil. That frame is based on the idea of isolated, immutable minds connected by tenuous, low-bandwith links. But the post-Singularity world does fit with the larger tradition of change and cooperation that started long ago (perhaps even before the rise of biological life). I think certain notions of ethics would apply in such an era. Research into IA and high-bandwidth communications should improve this understanding. I see just the glimmerings of this now; perhaps there are rules for distinguishing self from others on the basis of bandwidth of connection. And while mind and self will be vastly more labile than in the past, much of what we value (knowledge, memory, thought) need never be lost. I think Freeman Dyson has it right when he says, "God is what mind becomes when it has passed beyond the scale of our comprehension."12 ¦


 

1. Ulam, S., "Tribute to John von Neumann," Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, vol. 64. no. 3, May 1958, pp. 1-49.
2. Good, I. J., "Speculations Concerning the First Ultraintelligent Machine," in Advances in Computers, vol 6, Franz L. Alt and Morris Rubinoff, eds., 31-88, 1965, Academic Press.
3. Penrose, Roger, The Emperor's New Mind, Oxford University Press, 1989.
4. Searle, John R., "Minds, Brains, and Programs," in The Behavioral and Brain Sciences, vol. 3, Cambridge University Press, 1980.
5. Moravec, Hans, Mind Children, Harvard University Press, 1988.
6. Stent, Gunther S., The Coming of the Golden Age: A View of the End of Progress, The Natural History Press, 1969.
7. Drexler, K. Eric, Engines of Creation, Anchor Press/Doubleday, 1986.
8. Minsky, Marvin, Society of Mind, Simon and Schuster, 1985.
9. Cairns-Smith, A. G., Seven Clues to the Origin of Life, Cambridge University Press, 1985.
10. Margulis, Lynn and Dorian Sagan, Microcosmoss: Four Billion Years of Evolution From Our Microbial Ancestors, Summit Books, 1986.
11. Sims, Karl, "Interactive Evolution of Dynamical Systems," Thinking Machines Corporation, Technical Report Series (published in Toward a Practice of Autonomous Systems: Proceedings of the First European Conference on Artificial Life, Paris, MIT Press, December 1991.
12. Dyson, Freeman, Infinite in All Directions, Harper & Row, 1988.

Other Sources

Alfvin, Hannes, writing as Olof Johanneson, The End of Man?, Award Books, 1969.
Anderson, Poul, "Kings Who Die," If, March 1962, 8-36.
Asimov, Isaac, "Runaround," Astounding Science Fiction, March 1942, 94.
Barrow, John D. and Frank J. Tipler, The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, Oxford University Press, 1986.
Bear, Greg, "Blood Music," Analog Science Fiction-Science Fact, June, 1983.
Conrad, Michael, et al., "Towards an Artificial Brain," BioSystems, vol. 23, 175-218, 1989.
Dyson, Freeman, "Physics and Biology in an Open Universe," Review of Modern Physics, vol. 51, 447-460, 1979.
Herbert, Frank, Dune, Berkeley Books, 1985.
Kovacs, G. T. A., et al., "Regeneration Microelectrode Array for Peripheral Nerve Recording and Stimulation," IEEE Transactions on Biomedical Engineering, vol. 39, no. 9, 893-902.
Niven, Larry, "The Ethics of Madness," If, April 1967, 82-108.
Platt, Charles, private communication.
Rasmussen, S. et al., "Computational Connectionism within Neurons: a Model of Cytoskeletal Automata Subserving Neural Networks," in Emergent Computation, Stephanie Forrest, ed., 428-449, MIT Press, 1991.
Stapledon, Olaf, The Starmaker, Berkeley Books, 1961.
Swanwick Michael, Vacuum Flowers, serialized in Isaac Asimov's Science Fiction Magazine, December 1986 - February 1987.
Thearling, Kurt, "How We Will Build a Machine That Thinks," a workshop at Thinking Machines Corporation, August 24-26, 1992.
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Vinge, Vernor, "First Word," Omni, January 1983, 10.

 


Further reading:
Warwick, Kevin: 'In the Mind of the Machine'
Hans Moravec: 'Mind Children'
K. Eric Drexler: 'Engines of Creation' (online here). Recommended.


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